Trade credit insurance (TCI) volumes in the UAE are expected to grow by 50% within two years, according to Coface.

Coface’s quarterly country risk assessment survey reveals TCI currently stands at AED20bn in the GCC, and will continue to grow as the region, a major import and re-export hub, remains volatile.

Gregory Le Henand, Coface’s GCC country manager, says: “Whilst oil prices remain high at around US$115 per barrel, GDP rates continue to underpin public spending and safeguard trade which is the lifeblood of Dubai’s economy.”

Coface also predicts a continued recession at -0.1% in the eurozone, with a “persistent contraction in activity in Southern Europe”. Growth in the US will slow down to +1.5%, whilst emerging countries will post growth levels of +5.2% or more.

Among emerging countries, the French insurer has upgraded the risk profile of Indonesia to A4 and downgraded India’s to the same rank, adding that “the Indian model is being brought into serious question”.