Accelerating trade digitalisation could add US$2.8tn to global trade annually by 2031, according to a new report from Standard Chartered and Oxford Economics.
The research, part of Standard Chartered’s 2026 Future of Trade report, assessed how faster trade digitalisation and greater geopolitical fragmentation could affect global trade patterns and macroeconomic outcomes.
It found that international trade could be 6.9% higher in 2031 than it would otherwise be, compared with Oxford Economics’ baseline forecast for that year, under a ‘digital acceleration scenario’ that modelled the impact of lower trade frictions, greater technology investment and faster AI adoption on global trade patterns through the next five years.
Based on a survey of 2,100 senior corporate executives across 27 markets, the report found that businesses are adapting to a more complex trading environment by investing more in digital tools, AI and integrated financial infrastructure to improve visibility and reduce supply chain friction.
Four in five corporates said they had benefited from investment in digital capabilities, while 83% said digital tools had helped them respond more quickly to supply-chain disruption, according to the survey.
Oxford Economics research found that services trade stood to benefit the most from digitalisation. Digitally delivered services – including computer, cloud, cybersecurity and other remotely delivered services – grew 136% in exports between 2016 and 2025, compared with 70% growth in total goods and services exports. It also accounted for 14.7% of global exports in 2025, up from 10.6% in 2016.
Under the digital acceleration scenario, services trade could rise 11.4% above baseline by 2031, almost double the 5.9% increase projected for goods, as “better data flows, digital payments, interoperable systems and streamlined compliance reduce cross-border friction”, the report said.
AI adoption was set to be a key driver of this shift, with 56% of corporates rating it “highly relevant or transformational” to advancing trade digitalisation. That figure jumped to 62% among respondents in the technology, media and telecommunications, and energy sectors.
Shift to supplier-focused strategies
In addition to technology developments, the study’s findings also pointed to a departure from the nearshoring and friendshoring trends of recent years as companies find different ways to respond to geopolitical disruptions.
While more than nine in 10 businesses expected to adjust their supply-chain activities over the next three to five years, around 60% did not anticipate entering or exiting markets across sourcing, manufacturing or exporting.
Instead, businesses are prioritising supplier diversification and inventory management to build resilience within their existing networks, with “supplier-focused strategies” gaining most momentum in the Americas (+8.7 percentage points) and Greater China and North Asia (+6.8 percentage points).
Inventory management is also becoming a more important priority, particularly across the Asean and Mena regions.
Treasury functions too are taking on “a more strategic role” as “larger inventories, broader supplier networks and growing cross-border flows increase the need for digital tools, data visibility and AI-enabled decisions”, Oxford Economics researchers found.
Over the next three to five years, 37% of businesses plan to integrate treasury and supply-chain functions more closely, while the same proportion expects to adjust their treasury strategy.
Currency-risk management was a priority for 57% of respondents, with one in three expecting their foreign-exchange exposure to increase.
Some 82% said digital tools had improved visibility and forecasting across supply-chain and financial activities, while 74% said digital treasury tools had improved resilience in managing cash, liquidity and FX exposures amid ongoing uncertainty.
“As businesses focus less on redrawing supply chains and more on increasing resilience, visibility and agility, investments in digital capabilities are becoming a critical source of competitive advantage,” said Roberto Hoornweg, CEO, corporate and investment bank at Standard Chartered.
