The US presidential election has caused a lot of concern in the Mexican economy, mainly due to the Republican candidate’s stance on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and general relations between the two countries.

According to experts, the recent devaluation of the Mexican peso has had a lot to do with the presidential election campaign in the US. In fact, it has become an indicator of the likelihood of a Trump presidency: when Donald Trump did well in polls or at debates, the peso went down; when he lost popularity, it recovered. On the back of the final presidential debate on October 10, the peso reached a peak of 18.455 against the US dollar.

GTR spoke to Arnulfo Rodriguez, senior economist at BBVA Bancomer, on the sidelines of GTR Mexico Trade Finance Conference 2016, about the two distinct economic scenarios Mexico should brace for depending on who wins the November 8 election.