More than two thirds of Asian firms surveyed by HSBC feel greater certainty over trade policy compared to six months ago, as many report plans to shift their trade flows to increase their reliance on the region.
Several months after US President Donald Trump unveiled his ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs targeting countries including China and other Asian nations, corporates in the region are “showing signs of adaptation and stabilisation”, according to HSBC’s latest Global Trade Pulse report.
Although Asian respondents predict a 13% negative impact on revenue over the next two years, this is a drop of five percentage points compared to the same survey carried out six months ago.
“Our research data suggest that companies in Asia are adapting to the new environment,” said Aditya Gahlaut, regional head of global trade solutions, Asia at HSBC.
“Tariff uncertainty has galvanised Asia, while a growing sense of certainty is enabling companies across the region to make more informed decisions and plan ahead.”
Many Asian firms are upping their focus on securing trading partners within the region, the report found.
“Among Asian firms, 41% plan to increase reliance on Southeast Asia; 34% plan to increase reliance on East and North Asia; and 29% plan to increase reliance on South Asia,” it said.
Some markets are even finding that shifts in trade policy are aiding their short-term growth, HSBC said.
“Despite continued global trade uncertainty, 79% of Singapore businesses remain optimistic on growing trade over the next two years.”
Runa Baksi, head of Southeast Asia, global trade solutions at HSBC, added that this “highlights the resilience and optimism of businesses in Singapore”.
Other Asian markets, however, appear to be faring differently. Just one in five businesses in Hong Kong report feeling “well informed and prepared” for changes in trade regulations, versus 52% of US firms.
Worldwide, 62% of firms have seen working capital needs increase this year. Overall, 89% think that “trade-related volatility will make banks more important to their businesses in the next two-three years”.
The report found that two thirds had looked for alternative financing to plug funding gaps, with a similar proportion using more short-term financing. Malaysia- and Vietnam-based firms were most likely to have used the latter.
Two thirds of respondents said they expect costs to rise over the next six months due to tariffs and trade uncertainty, as well as higher shipping or freight rates and regulatory compliance burdens.
A little under half of all respondents saw tariffs as the main factor impacting their revenues, closely followed by pricing changes.
Baseline tariffs for US imports currently sit at 10% or more for many goods.
Just over one fifth of global companies (22%) are concerned about supply chain disruption negatively impacting revenues by more than a quarter over the next two years – down 16 percentage points to 37% compared to six months ago.
More than half of companies worldwide also expect revenues to increase over the next two years.
In October, research from Crisil Coalition Greenwich found that US banks had steadily lost ground in the Asian corporate trade finance market – a shift driven by the impact of Washington’s tariffs on China and local lenders boosting their capabilities.
The World Trade Organization has also suggested that the impact of US tariffs on global trade is now likely to be felt in 2026, after goods trade in the first half of 2025 performed better than expected.
