As global trade patterns shift, the industry faces a structural imbalance: capital is concentrated where it is least needed, while demand goes unmet elsewhere. Joshua Kroeker, CEO of Mitigram, argues that unlocking the next phase of growth will require a move beyond digitisation toward managed, data-driven service models that can finally bridge the trade finance gap.
A generational shift in global trade is unfolding. Driven by an unpredictable geopolitical landscape and a rapid pivot toward emerging industries, the trade finance industry faces a defining challenge: where the next decade of growth will come from.
Everyone wants growth. Banks want it for their balance sheets, corporates chase it in their revenues, and national economies require it in their total output. Growth is the organising principle of modern finance. Yet the engine of this global expansion, trade finance, has hit a structural wall.
For two decades, the industry played it safe. Banks doubled down on the same pool of large, creditworthy multinationals in mature markets. This strategy was rational, but it is now exhausted. These elite participants have become overbanked and have such a surplus of banking relationships that simply managing them has become a burden they need solutions for. This has created a paradox in bank risk books worldwide:
Fallow credit: Massive credit lines sit idle in mature markets where demand cannot absorb the capacity.
Scarce limits: Capital is choked off in developing markets where demand is highest and funding is needed most.
The system is misaligned, and supply and demand are simply out of sync.
The opportunity gap
The true potential of the next decade isn’t in the crowded centre of the market. It lives in the void. A US$2.5tn trade finance gap exists today because of three main barriers that have paralysed the movement of capital.
1: The “rejection ratio” crisis
Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are the engine rooms of the global economy, but 65% of all trade finance applications are rejected. These are businesses actively importing, exporting and expanding, yet they are met with closed doors, not for lack of creditworthiness, but for not fitting the “bankable” profile of a multinational.
2: The geographic mismatch
While credit lines sit idle in mature markets, 40% of the world’s unmet trade demand is trapped in developing economies. Western banks often lack the clarity of data needed to lend confidently in these regions. This isn’t a failure of risk but a failure of information. Larger firms in emerging markets with genuine trade flows are denied access to international capital because information asymmetry and operational complexity exceed the limits of traditional Western underwriting. This is evident in major importing markets like Bangladesh, where buyers rely heavily on bank‑risk instruments like letters of credit, yet exporters often struggle to find banks willing to take on that risk.
3: The cost-to-serve wall
The problem is structural: the overhead for KYC, compliance and onboarding for a local mid-market firm is nearly identical to that of a Fortune 500 giant, but the revenue and flow are a fraction. Served one-by-one, the long tail is economically irrational. Technology was promised to help solve this problem, but technology alone may not be enough. Even with everything digitised, there is still a lot of expertise needed to manage the process.
The distinction: From software to real solutions
Many platforms claim to solve these issues with software, but software alone simply digitises a broken process. Mitigram’s view is that the next decade of trade finance growth will only be unlocked if banks get the data, flow and support they need to serve a wider range of clients, and we believe this is only manageable through a service, not just a platform.
The industry has a long history of trying to deploy new technologies, new platforms and new networks all meant to reduce the cost to serve and close the trade finance gap. Most have failed.
The shift to managed trade finance
A managed service powered by experts, AI, standard communication rails and structured data can aggregate many SMEs’ businesses into a single flow. Once that aggregation exists, and KYC is solved at the source, the burden on any individual bank is dramatically reduced. The unit economics that have kept the long tail out of the system will finally start to work.
The model is already familiar. Small businesses do not build in-house tax or legal expertise. Instead, they engage external specialists.
A managed trade finance service is no different: the SME does not need to become an expert in UCP 600, and the bank does not need to build SME-specific infrastructure. Both sides plug into a service layer that handles the complexity for them.
“The next decade of trade finance growth will only be unlocked if banks get the data, flow and support they need to serve a wider range of clients, and we believe this is only manageable through a service, not just a platform.”
Joshua Kroeker, Mitigram
That’s exactly what we’re building at Mitigram: a new architecture that replaces uncertainty with structured data pipelines, verified transaction histories and human expertise on demand, turning information asymmetry into a solved problem.
This evolution doesn’t replace Mitigram’s core platform. Our software continues to serve tier 1 and tier 2 corporates with established workflows. What we are adding is the service layer that brings SMEs and mid-market clients into the same digital ecosystem, with the same level of confidence and access.
Overcoming these hurdles requires more than just a change in technology. It demands a fundamental shift in mindset. The industry must move away from rigid, geography-bound models toward a system built on network effects and on-demand expertise.
To unlock growth, five priorities stand out:
Serve the giants where they actually need help: Large multinationals do not need another bank in mature markets. They need help in frontier and emerging markets like Nigeria, Bangladesh or Vietnam, where limits with their core banks are usually stretched. Data-driven platforms like Mitigram can enable this shift.
Education is the new infrastructure: Grassroots awareness is the “first mile” of the trade journey. Companies cannot access instruments they do not know exist. Together with our banking and technology partners, Mitigram is developing a comprehensive community platform with the expertise and free tools to help clients enter new markets.
Break the unit economic barrier: Use AI and shared infrastructure to standardise and scale execution, while driving down the cost to serve. This aggregator function will make the long tail economically viable to lenders.
Move from “headcount” to “expertise as a service”: Trade Finance as a Service (TFaaS) gives banks and corporates on-demand access to seasoned practitioners without having to build in-house teams. The SME stays focused on its business; the expertise comes through the service.
Solve for uncertainty, not just risk: Western banks often lack the information, not the appetite, for emerging market risk. Structured data pipelines allow a bank in Frankfurt to assess a corporate in Nairobi with confidence.
The new architecture of global trade
This is the new architecture for global trade: a unified layer of technology, data and human expertise. None of these three pieces is sufficient on its own. Technology without expertise digitises a broken process. Data without human judgment cannot weigh the context that trade finance has always demanded. And expertise without scalable infrastructure cannot reach the long tail.
It is the combination of all three that makes the system work, and that makes inclusivity the true measure of success. By bringing smaller, growing corporates into the same structured, transparent ecosystem as large global players, Mitigram isn’t just enabling the next decade of growth. We are building the infrastructure to support everyone in the modern value chain, making inclusive trade finance possible.
