Conflict and geopolitics bedevil trade in 2026, so what can be done for supply chains? Nicholas Clark, head of channel management, cash and trade at NatWest, shares some tips for businesses.
Oil. What’s more to say than the stuff in the barrel has many businesses over one? Sadly, quite a bit. Extended conflict, trade uncertainty and global inflation threaten a summer of tough love for businesses. But how can supply chain management help in 2026? Here are some strategies, tactics and tips worth considering.
Think supple suppliers
A resilient supply chain increasingly depends on cultivating a balanced portfolio of trusted suppliers – whether based locally or internationally. For natural reasons, local partners offer speed, flexibility and shorter lead times, which are critical when demand shifts rapidly or disruptions occur. Conversely, suppliers located further afield can provide greater breadth of supply, access to specialised materials and knowhow, and additional capacity during periods of restricted supply. While this diversified approach may introduce marginally higher costs, it serves as a strategic investment in continuity and risk mitigation.
However, simply having multiple suppliers is not solely sufficient to derisk a supply chain. The real advantage lies in developing strong, collaborative relationships with each of them. Treating suppliers as partners – rather than transactional vendors – fosters transparency, trust and mutual commitment on both sides of the contract. This can lead to preferential terms during shortages, more reliable information around these terms, and faster problem-solving when challenges arise.
By blending geographic diversity with relationship depth, organisations can create a supply network that is both agile and dependable. In times of disruption – whether geopolitical, environmental or economic – this approach enables faster adaptation and reduces exposure to single points of failure. Ultimately, businesses that invest in both supplier diversification and partnership-building are better positioned to maintain operations, meet customer expectations and navigate uncertainty with confidence.
Align with partners
Crucially, the most effective supply chains are built on aligned visions and shared objectives. When partners across the network understand and support the same strategic direction, decision-making becomes faster, trust deepens, and the entire system becomes more agile. This alignment ensures that all parties are working together not just to deliver products, but to drive long-term success.
The virtues of working closely with both suppliers and customers often have a halo quality that extends into other areas of a business. In product development, for instance, early supplier involvement can unlock design efficiencies, improve manufacturability and accelerate time to market. At the same time, engaging customers in feedback loops ensures that products remain aligned with evolving needs and preferences.
“Ultimately, businesses that invest in both supplier diversification and partnership-building are better positioned to maintain operations, meet customer expectations and navigate uncertainty with confidence.”
Nicholas Clark, NatWest
And in treasury and finance, effective collaboration can play a key role in managing costs holistically. Rather than focusing on isolated price reductions, businesses can partner with suppliers to identify efficiencies across the supply chain – whether through process improvements, material optimisation, or smarter logistics. This shared approach often leads to more sustainable cost savings without compromising quality or reliability. Suppliers can bring unique expertise, technologies and market insights that can help organisations stay ahead of competitors. When combined with real-time customer feedback and demand signals, businesses can respond quickly to market movements and adjust strategies with confidence.
Understand your situational risks
Risk modelling is an essential discipline for organisations seeking to proactively manage supply chain uncertainty. It requires a deep understanding of the full supply network – not just immediate suppliers and customers, but the extended tiers that underpin them. By mapping this broader ecosystem, businesses can identify hidden dependencies, potential bottlenecks, and points of vulnerability that may otherwise go unnoticed until disruption occurs.
Scenario planning and forecasting are central to this approach. Organisations that incorporate external data – such as weather patterns, geopolitical developments and economic trends – can better anticipate shifts in supply and demand. For example, understanding seasonal climate risks can inform sourcing strategies and inventory positioning, while forward-looking cost modelling enables businesses to build protective measures into future contracts, safeguarding margins against volatility.
Part of the ‘how do we do this?’ lies in innovation. Advances in technology further enhance risk visibility and responsiveness. Tools such as real-time shipment tracking allow companies to monitor vessel movements and detect potential delays early, enabling proactive rerouting or contingency planning. Similarly, predictive analytics can simulate different disruption scenarios, helping decision-makers evaluate trade-offs and prepare appropriate responses.
By embedding risk-modelling into supply chain strategy, organisations move from reactive firefighting to informed anticipation. This not only minimises disruption but also strengthens resilience, ensuring the business can maintain continuity and protect profitability in an increasingly unpredictable global environment.
Reconfiguring storage and manufacturing capabilities is a vital lever in building supply chain resilience. Many organisations are shifting from purely “just in time” models to a more balanced “just in case” approach – holding strategic buffer stock to protect against short-term disruptions. This requires not only additional storage capacity but also smarter inventory segmentation, ensuring that critical or long-lead-time components are prioritised. By doing so, businesses can maintain service levels and avoid losing customers during supply shocks.
At the same time, flexibility in manufacturing is becoming increasingly important. Upgrading production processes – through modular design, adaptable equipment or digital integration – enables companies to shift production between products or components more efficiently. This reduces reliance on specific inputs and minimises the risk of obsolete inventory. By aligning manufacturing agility with inventory strategy, organisations can respond faster to changes in demand while controlling working capital and waste.
Sharpen your talent
Investment in talent is equally critical to unlocking supply chain performance. Skilled professionals with deep expertise in logistics, customs and international trade can identify opportunities to optimise routes, reduce duties and leverage trade agreements. Their knowledge ensures that goods move efficiently across borders while remaining fully compliant with evolving regulations.
Beyond technical expertise, organisations benefit from developing commercially minded supply chain teams that understand cost drivers end-to-end. This enables better decision-making, from sourcing and transportation through to final delivery. By combining operational excellence with regulatory insight, businesses can maximise profitability while reducing risk – turning the supply chain into a source of competitive advantage rather than a constraint.
Visit NatWest.com for insights on building a resilient supply chain and to access Trade Links, our dedicated podcast exploring trade and geopolitics. Alternatively, speak to your relationship manager if you’re a customer, and we can guide you with strategies and support.
