Some key Mexican exporters are freezing long-term capital spending and seeking more short-term trade finance amid uncertainty over a review of the North American trade deal, the head of trade finance at Grupo Financiero Banorte has said.
With a crucial deadline to extend the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) for another 16 years expected to be missed, Banorte’s Gerardo Gutierrez-Olvera said some companies across the automotive, steel and aluminium sectors are responding by pausing long-term capex investments.
The USMCA came into force in 2020, with the three governments agreeing to conduct a joint review by July 1, 2026 and decide whether to extend it until 2042.
But the Trump administration is pushing for further concessions from its neighbours on a series of policy issues beyond trade, such as migration and drug enforcement, turning what was expected to be a routine assessment into a high-stakes negotiation.
Experts widely expect the upcoming deadline will not be met, meaning the agreement will have to be reviewed annually.
“Trade policy is being used as a leverage for a broader negotiation of national security objectives of the US, and that would take a longer time,” Gutierrez-Olvera said.
“In terms of new capex investment or long-term investments, this uncertainty could trigger cooling-down investment decisions in some of those most affected sectors.”
He said Banorte, which is Mexico’s second-largest lender, is seeing clients “increasingly in need of more support for trade-related working capital” while long-term investment decisions remain postponed or temporarily suspended.
Michael Camunez, CEO of trade and international relations consultancy Monarch Global Strategies and former White House Special Counsel and US Assistant Secretary of Commerce, said: “Periods of policy uncertainty typically increase demand for trade finance solutions because companies need greater flexibility in managing liquidity, working capital and supply-chain risk.”
He told GTR the USMCA uncertainty “is affecting the timing of some investment decisions”, but added that “companies continue to view North America, and Mexico in particular, as critical components of their long-term supply-chain strategies”.
“The review should be viewed not simply as a trade negotiation, but as a test of whether North America can strengthen its position as an integrated manufacturing platform at a time of growing global competition,” Camunez said.
Manufacturing demand grows
Mexico’s corporates are expected to need further working capital support as the country prepares for increased manufacturing demand, particularly in sectors linked to AI and data centres, Gutierrez-Olvera said.
“I call it ‘spill-shoring’ because there is a lot of investment coming into Mexico simply because the US cannot take it,” he said.
“The US is looking to reshore investment and create jobs, but for many reasons, it cannot absorb all of this manufacturing capacity domestically, and Mexico remains the best complementary alternative for the relocation of that investment in North America.”
Mexico has overtaken China to become the US’s largest goods trading partner in 2023, and the Trump administration’s goals to reduce reliance on Chinese imports and instead focus on “onshoring, nearshoring and the integration of [North American] supply chains” will continue to “favour Mexico’s structure”, said the trade lead at Banorte.
Mexico is “already supplying close to a quarter of all goods needed to develop data centres in the US”, Gutierrez-Olvera said. Computer hardware exports, driven by US data centre and AI demand, surpassed automotive exports to become Mexico’s single largest export category in 2025, according to Bank of Mexico data.
Gutierrez-Olvera added that “in the sectors where Mexico is already a leading supplier for North America, such as automotive, health, pharma, aircraft and energy equipment”, the country’s suppliers are “seeing even more of a shift” in demand from customers that would have previously used China as their leading supplier.
Potential changes to the USMCA’s rules of origin requirements – which determine how much North American content a product must contain to qualify for preferential tariff treatment – are also influencing sourcing decisions.
US officials have signalled interest in strengthening these requirements during the review process, particularly in sectors such as automotive, to reduce reliance on Chinese and other Asian inputs.
Although no changes have been agreed, the prospect of stricter local-content thresholds, combined with existing US tariffs on Chinese goods, has prompted some of Banorte’s importing and manufacturing clients to shift procurement towards Mexican and other North American suppliers in anticipation of stricter trade rules.
As a result of the growing pressure on Mexico’s domestic manufacturing sector, those across it “currently need more help with short-term working capital solutions”, with Banorte also supporting the development and transition to new suppliers in North America through letters of credit, Gutierrez-Olvera said.
