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3-part webinar
December 7, 9 & 11th
The Geopolitics and Economics of Covid-19
Massive stimulus measures have so far prevented the Covid-19 induced recession becoming a depression but the global economy remains fragile. While the Americas, India and much of Africa battle the first wave of the pandemic, the reopening of shops and restaurants gave European economies a momentary boost, only for second wave outbreaks to prove a further contraction in demand can be expected. A V-shaped recovery is looking increasingly optimistic and a W-shaped double-dip recession or the slide into a L-shaped depression by the middle of the decade more accurately reflect the weaknesses in the global economy.
Against the backdrop of economic fragility, the momentum of the pandemic has escalated the Trump-initiated trade war with China into an ideological confrontation that will prove more insoluble. Beijing has played into US hands, adopting an aggressive posture towards India that has pushed New Delhi closer to Washington and implementing of the National Security Law in Hong Kong which has caused western nations to re-evaluate their economic ties with China. Rivalry between the US and the other revisionist powers – Russia, Iran and North Korea – has accelerated in the run-up to November’s US presidential election.
Animosity between governments has prevented a constructive international dialogue about the origins of Covid-19 and the ways in which human encroachment on wildlife habitats are creating the conditions for future pandemics. As humans change the environment, desertification and sea-level rises will drive hundreds of millions of people from coastal and tropical areas to the temperate climates of the Europe and the US. With the melting of the ice-sheets and Siberian permafrost, long-frozen deadly viruses will resurface and quickly spread around the world as Covid-19 did. The link between human behaviour and pandemics is increasingly clear.
The preservation of the world economy and the return to a semblance of normality, does not reside with economists or heads of state but with the scientists who toil to develop a vaccine. But the development of the vaccine is only the beginning. Who gets access to the leading vaccine and how much they are willing to pay in monetary terms or make in geopolitical concessions, will shape the evolution of international relations in the medium term.
Markets are poor at pricing geopolitical, let alone environmental risks, because their probability is difficult to assess and we have never had to contend with ‘vaccine nationalism’. In view of escalating international tensions, the acceleration of climate change and the unpreparedness of the world to effectively manage the challenges presented by global pandemics, we should expect the coming years to be punctuated by unexpected surprises that have the potential to derail the global economy.
If your business interests are influenced by these issues, join our three-part webinar on December 7, 9 & 11th and receive 6 CPD points.
Why is this webinar different?
- Unparalleled speaker knowledge and expertise
- Practical framework for analysis of how Covid-19 is shaping country, political and sovereign risk
- Range and breath of topics and regions covered
- Proprietary data on variation of impact of Covid-19 on countries and regions within countries
- Opportunity to submit questions to speakers in advance of the webinar
- Earn 6 CPD points
Hosted by Dr Elizabeth Stephens, Investment & Country Risk Advisor; Managing Director, Geopolitical Risk Advisory, the 3 days will each consist of a one-hour presentation followed by dedicated breakout groups, enabling participants to brainstorm and share ideas on specific themes and case study exercises.
December 7
(10.00-11.00 GMT)
- Identifying the challenges of re-opening economies in the absence of a vaccine
- Considering how international supply chains and globalisation are being reshaped by varying infection rates across the world
- Analysing the most economically effective approach to managing Covid-19
Exercise 1: Hong Kong’s National Security Law
(11.00-12.00 GMT)
Beijing’s decision to introduce national security legislation in Hong Kong will mark the first time that a Chinese law carrying criminal penalties has been introduced into Hong Kong’s legal code. As the Chief Risk Officer for an international corporation with operations and personnel based in Hong Kong, you have been asked by the board of your company to produce a report on the potential implications of the law for business operations. Specifically, you have been asked to determine: “In what ways and to what extent the introduction of the national security legislation will alter the political risk profile of Hong Kong for international corporations with operations and personnel in the territory?”
December 9
(10.00-11.00 GMT)
- Considering the crisis response mechanisms of international institutions (IMF, ECB) and their future role in the international system
- Understanding the potential for climate change to trigger pandemics and economic shocks
- Analysing the potential for future pandemics and global resilience
Exercise 2: Climate change
(11.00-12.00 GMT)
The impact of climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. In East Africa, desertification has created the conditions for locust swarms that are destroying crops and livelihoods, whilst the potential for climate ‘tipping points’ which cause the ice caps to melt and sea levels to rise at accelerated rates, will drive hundreds of millions of migrants to move to the more temperate regions of Europe and the US.
As the Chief Risk Officer for an international corporation with operations and personnel based in 50 countries, you have been asked by the board of your company to produce a report on the potential implications of climate change on your business activities. Specifically, you have been asked to determine: “A strategy for determining a risk premium for varying levels of climate change for your business activities and identifying your company’s specific vulnerabilities to climate change.”
December 11
(10.00-11.00 GMT)
- Exploring the implications of the evolution of the US-China trade war into an ideological confrontation
- Analysing the impact ‘vaccine nationalism’ will exert on geopolitical relations
- Identifying the new metrics of geopolitical power in the aftermath of the pandemic
Exercise 3: Financial stability
(11.00-12.00 GMT)
Political polarisation in the US, the Trump administration’s weaponization of the US dollar and fears monetary policy will create inflationary pressure, has triggered a sell-off of US treasuries and a flight to safety. Gold prices have risen 50% since 2018 and are considered a more reliable store of value than any international currency. As the Chief Risk Officer for an international hedge fund with USD10 billion of assets under management, you have been asked by the board of your fund to produce a report on the future stability of the US dollar. Specifically, you have been asked to determine: “What are the challenges to the US dollar remaining the global reserve currency, what are the most viable alternatives to the US dollar and what would be the implications for the international financial system for such a shift.
Dr Elizabeth Stephens
Dr Elizabeth Stephens is an investment and country risk advisor and Managing Director of Geopolitical Risk Advisory, a geopolitical tech company. The company uses data analytics to give financial, corporate and high net worth clients the advantage in understanding how geopolitical risk moves markets. Elizabeth founded Geopolitical Risk Advisory after ten years as Head of Credit & Political Risk Advisory at JLT Specialty.
Investment and country risk advisor and Managing Director, Geopolitical Risk Advisory
Jonty Bloom
Jonty Bloom has worked as a business and economics journalist for 35 years, 30 of those at the BBC, where he was the corporation’s business correspondent for 8 years. He has worked across TV and Radio, mainly covering business and economics but also as Brussels correspondent and as a general news reporter. Jonty has won numerous awards and has reported from around the world, for many years specialising in coverage of the EU and the European economy.
Journalist & Broadcaster
This 3-day webinar series is fully accredited by the London Institute of Banking & Finance.
Participation earns 6 CPD learning hours/PDUs.
Visit www.libf.ac.uk for more information.
Venue: Webinar