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The leaders of Iran and the P5+1 countries are giving themselves an extra week to reach a nuclear framework agreement that could see the long-isolated nation’s trade and financial sanctions lifted.

The new July 7 deadline will need to be reached if the US is to present a bill to Congress before July 9, after which it will take the government 60 days instead of 30 days to complete its review process.

The extension comes after weeks of speculation in the media, with reports that Iran is allegedly trying to “backtrack” from commitments agreed on in the basic framework drafted last April. But it appears Iranian officials are planning the country’s economic development on the basis of sanctions being lifted, which suggests that they would be more likely to accept the conditions dictated by the P5+1 than to give up on the agreement.

“Some of the talking points that have come out from senior Iranian officials have been portrayed in a negative light – some of this rhetoric is for domestic [US] consumption. In reality they’re not going to backtrack: these are pretty hard lines that have been drawn,” IHS Country Risk senior analyst Jamie Ingram tells GTR.

“One point to note is that the Supreme Leader [Ayatollah Khamenei] yesterday outlined points for a new five-year plan for Iran, a lot of it for economic development, and this was very much on the basis that sanctions would be lifted. The Iranian establishment appears to be gearing up for the removal of sanctions.”

They could certainly suspend some of the EU sanctions and some of the executive orders from the US more quickly. But the congressional sanctions would take a lot longer to roll back – we’re talking potentially up to two years. Jamie Ingram, IHS

Iran has been taking steps to prepare for the removal, consulting oil majors to draw up new terms for foreign investment in its oil and gas sector, even though this would be the one of the last sanctions to be lifted according to Ingram. Still, a Financial Times article dated July 1 points out that the country hopes to secure US$100bn of fresh investment under renegotiated contracts. Funds would most likely come from Asia first, followed by Europe and the US.

Another move that was interpreted by the media as removal preparation is the increase of Iran’s stake in the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC), but the correlation has been contested by ITFC: a spokesperson tells GTR that the institution’s general assembly opened the door for all member countries to increase their shares in ITFC a while ago and Iran submitted a request at that time even before the start of their sanction negotiations.

In the US, President Barack Obama this week issued a warning that the country could still “walk away” from the negotiations if the nuclear inspections conceded by Iran weren’t rigorous enough – probably more of an attempt to calm the agreement’s critics domestically than an actual threat to Iranian negotiators.

While sticking points remain around the timeline for the removal of sanctions and the level of inspections of Iran’s nuclear facility, it is unlikely the agreement will be dropped altogether, though further delays are not inconceivable.

If the parties do reach a consensus before July 7 however, sanctions could start being removed within two or three months of the ratification process. “They could certainly suspend some of the EU sanctions and some of the executive orders from the US more quickly. But the congressional sanctions would take a lot longer to roll back – we’re talking potentially up to two years,” Ingram says.