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3-part webinar
May 18, 20 & 22
Providing a comprehensive understanding of geopolitical risk events and their impact on investment and supply chains. This 3-part webinar, explored the ways in which newly emerging risk will reshape relations between states, trading patterns and international supply chains.
Click Watch More above to access the free on-demand recordings of other webinar videos.
SERIES OUTLINE
As the world teeters on the brink of the greatest depression since the 1930s, the world’s leading economic power succumbs to Covid-19 and international institutions creak under the nationalist tide that is shaping government responses to the pandemic, the political and economic order that emerges from the crisis may differ significantly from what came before.
This 3-part webinar series, explored the ways in which Covid-19 is reshaping the future global order into one that is increasingly fragmented, isolationist and nationalistic, as leaders battle to contain the pandemic and compete for finite medical resources. The variability of the death rate in countries that superficially would have been expected to have similar outcomes is notable, as is the damage being wrought to different types of economies by the lockdown.
All countries are being negatively impacted and the surge in public debt will shape future economic relations. Will private lenders continue to finance sovereigns with chequered records in servicing their debt and will credit rating agencies instigate another round of downgrades? Will a significant rise in inflation and taxation be required to enable this heavily debt laden world to operate?
The trajectory of countries coming out of the crisis will influence the new balance of power. On current indicators, the US may be last to exit the crisis, whereas China is beginning to return to work. Mutual dependency requires both economies to be fully functioning to pull the world out of recession, but will the new round of infections in north-east China does not bode well for other nations as they try to move beyond lockdown.
What will this mean for the future of international power relations, patterns of trade and the structure of supply chains. Will globalisation and international institutions survive or will the surge of nationalist policy continue?
Session 1: May 18
Covid-19 and the reshaping of country, sovereign and political risk
• Explore the ways analysts distinguish between country, sovereign and political risk and understand how these metrics will be revised in the Covid-19 world.
• Identify the factors that have made countries more or less vulnerable to Covid-19.
• Analyse a world where traditional power metrics have been redrawn.
• Consider how heightened levels of public debt will impact sovereign creditworthiness.
Session 2: May 20
Covid-19 and the redrawing on international supply chains
• Analyse the impact of the shock to demand and supply, the curtailment of liquidity and supply chain disruption on the world economy.
• Identify the sectors most vulnerable to supply chain disruption and the impact on longevity and shareholder returns.
• Consider the impact of a retreat from global supply chains and a resurgence of domestic manufacturing and agriculture on trade flows.
• Analyse the potential for home working to transform the commercial property market and the ancillary services that supply it.
Session 3: May 22
How will Covid-19 change the geopolitical risk landscape?
• Identify winners and losers in the international power hierarchy post-Covid-19.
• Understand whether Covid-19 will be an accelerator of existing trends or cause a geopolitical break with what went before.
• Consider the role of international institutions in a fragmented political order.
• Explore popular political legitimacy in a post Covid-19 world and the leaders that delivered.
Why is this webinar different?
• Unparalleled expertise of the speakers who are active in the market
• Practical framework for analysis of how Covid-19 is shaping country, political and sovereign risk
• Range and breath of topics and regions covered
• Proprietary data on variation of impact of Covid-19 on countries and regions within countries
• Opportunity to submit questions to speakers in advance of the webinar
• The chance to gain CPD points
Access
The GTR Training webinar, three-part series, was hosted on Zoom. For questions, please contact marketing@gtreview.com.
Dr Elizabeth Stephens
Dr Elizabeth Stephens is an investment and country risk advisor and Managing Director of Geopolitical Risk Advisory, a geopolitical tech company. The company uses data analytics to give financial, corporate and high net worth clients the advantage in understanding how geopolitical risk moves markets. Elizabeth founded Geopolitical Risk Advisory after ten years as Head of Credit & Political Risk Advisory at JLT Specialty.
Investment and country risk advisor and Managing Director, Geopolitical Risk Advisory
Christine Sheilds
Christine Shields is an independent economic advisor specialising in global macro-economic issues. Since 2014, she has been a consultant to Oxford Economics, one of the largest economics consultancies in the world. From 2006 -2013, Christine ran the Country Risk Research function in Standard Chartered Bank where she focused on political and economic risk.
Independent Economic Advisor
This 3-day webinar series is fully accredited by the London Institute of Banking & Finance.
Participation earns 3 CPD learning hours/PDUs.
Visit www.libf.ac.uk for more information.
Venue: Training
Website: https://zoom.us/