New report reveals mixed forecast for Africa

 Africa faces uneven recovery across the continent according to a new report.

An important finding of the report, titled the African Economic Outlook, highlights that the global financial crisis brought a period of relatively high economic growth in Africa to a sudden end, with the continent’s GDP growth slashed by more than half from 2008 to 2009, ending at 2.5%.

The report aims to forecast growth rates and economic trends for the continent and is compiled by industry experts from the AfDB, the OECD Development Centre and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, as well as a network of African think-tanks and research centres.

The pace of population growth on the continent means that the growth of per capita GDP came to a near standstill, with average growth expected to rebound to 5.2% in 2011, closer to the 6% seen in 2009.

Other key findings of the report are the likelihood of uneven recoveries across both the continent and industry sectors.

Southern Africa was the hardest hit in 2009 and as a result will recover slower than other regions with an average growth of 4% from 2010 to 2011, while East Africa, which faired the best during the crisis, is projected to achieve the highest GDP growth, averaging 6%.

North and West Africa are both forecast to achieve 5% GDP growth, with Central Africa projected to reach 4% during the same period.

Across industry sectors, mining and manufacturing were particularly exposed to the fall of commodity prices and global trade in goods and services, with the country reporting a total decline in export volumes of 2.5% and a drop in import volume by around 8%.

The agricultural sector, however, was resilient to the downturn, exacerbated by good harvests in some countries across the continent.

The report is also quick to praise the debt relief and loans provided by the IMF, World Bank and AfDB, which provided financing to adopt counter-cyclical policies which cushioned the impact of the crisis.

Henri-Bernard Solignac-Lecomte, head of Europe, Africa and the Middle East desk at the OECD development centre, comments: “The good news is that the continent has proved resilient to the crisis. The bad news is that, despite rebounding growth next year, the downturn could make it more difficult for some African countries to meet with millennium development goal of halving the number of people living in poverty by 2015.”